King Felix's Court

So, who would’ve guessed that on May 19th Kyle Seager would lead the Mariners in OPS? And who would’ve guessed that that would mean Kyle Seager was doing really well, instead of the rest of the team being very bad? Hey you lying assholes, put your hands down!

In all seriousness, though, Kyle Seager has done a fantastic job this season, and statistics seem to back up that his fantastic hitting could be at least somewhat sustainable. He’s posting an 85.9% contact rate this season, and his O-Swing % (percentage of the time he swings at balls outside the strike zone) is at 31.7%, which is lower than Giancarlo Stanton, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, and Miguel Cabrera. So don’t be fooled by that 2.8% walk rate. As Jeff Sullivan said at Lookout Landing, Seager is simply hitting pitches before he gets four balls. Also, his walk rates of 11% in A-ball, 8.7% in AA-ball, and 9.4% in AAA-ball reflect that Seager is capable of drawing more free passes in the future. Paired with his excellent ability to make contact, it’s not unreasonable to expect Seager to continue to hit for a fairly good average, as well as get on base more often than his .310 OBP would suggest.

Most striking, however, is the development of Seager’s power. He’s always shown decent, gap-like power in the minor leagues, posting an isolated power mark of .146. That number has improved to .204 after today’s 3-4, HR, BB game, and while it’s not likely that Seager will continue to hit for that kind of power, he’s showing that there’s more pop in his bat than originally thought. He’s said in various interviews that he added muscle this offseason with the intention of hitting the ball harder, and so far it has paid off. Even with his low walk rate, he’s managed a 124 wRC+, which means he’s been 24% better than a league-average hitter in 2012.

Kyle Seager has only had 344 career plate appearances in the majors, and I don’t expect him to continue to hit like he has so far in 2012–.292/.310/.496–in the future. That being said, all of his indicators are good, and if his walk rate returns to something more normal for him, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he could turn into a .300/.350/.450 type of hitter. Pair it with his so-far excellent glove, which has earned him +3.5 UZR at 3rd and +0.9 at 2nd so far, and it’s not far-fetched to believe that Kyle Seager could be a 3-4 WAR third baseman in the major leagues for the next few years.

At the start of this season, there was some hope that Chone Figgins may not be a complete disaster again. That hope started very small, and was likely nurtured by the fact that everyone is hopeful around spring training, but the Mariners had high enough hopes that they decided to give Figgins a shot at the lead off role. Much was said about how if he were just put back into the role he had most recently had success in, that somehow, that success would come back.

At first, Figgins looked a little different. He seemed to be hitting the ball with more authority to my eye, and was working deeper into counts, much like he did when he was a successful player for the Angels. However, any player can look like a world-beater or a chump over a small enough sample size. (How’s that one Pujols guy doing right now, anyway?)

We’re now a full month into the season, and Chone Figgins has been a complete disaster again. While it’s still early, Figgins has already come to the plate 104 times this season, and so far there are no reasons to believe that he’s gotten any better, or will get better. In fact, he’s looking worse than ever in several key areas. His 82.8% contact rate is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season; conversely, his swinging strike rate of 6.7% is the second highest of his career since his rookie season. You just can’t strike out 26% of the time as a lead off man, unless you’re taking a ton of walks–which, of course Figgins is not doing. In the past, Figgins has at least been able to get on base via the walk, but last season Figgins posted a 6.7% walk rate. This season, Chone Figgins has a 7.7% walk rate.

Chone Figgins is 34 years old, and over the 105 games he’s played from 2011 until now, he has been worth -1.8 WAR. Only Adam Dunn has been less valuable than Figgins in that time span. Chone Figgins has a 66 wRC+ with his .198/.260/.319 line this season. Chone Figgins has been worth -4.9 runs in the field by UZR. Chone Figgins is also, as of this writing, still the lead off hitter for the Seattle Mariners, taking at-bats that could be given to promising players like Mike Carp or Casper Wells. But the leash is getting shorter. Don’t be surprised if Chone Figgins is no longer playing baseball for the Seattle Mariners in the next week or two. Whenever it happens, it won’t be soon enough.

The regular season is finally upon us–again! After one of the strangest weeks of non-meaningful baseball coming after meaningful baseball, meaningful baseball is about to start happening again, and there’s a few interesting things that have happened in that time span.

First of all is the Mariners’ decision to start Jason Vargas instead of Felix Hernandez, giving Felix an extra tune-up start in Peoria. This means that technically, Jason Vargas will be starting two games in a row. As Larry Stone noted, this isn’t quite as unusual as one might think; in the past, teams have used the all-star break as an opportunity to start their best pitcher in two consecutive games. At first I had some trepidation about the A’s facing Vargas twice in a row, but it’s not really quite what it seems–after all, the A’s had to play five more spring training games too, so Vargas should look fresh to A’s hitters again.

The second thing of note in the last week has been Felix Hernandez’s velocity. After reportedly not reaching more than 91 MPH in Tokyo, all eyes were on Felix in his tune-up start to see if his velocity would go up a tick. It didn’t, as the King topped out at 91 MPH in those four innings of work. I’m unworried, however. If you watched the game, you’d see that Felix still has his usual command and movement, and pitching coach Carl Willis hasn’t noticed any mechanical changes in his delivery. Personally, I’m assuming at least some of the velocity will come back, but even if it doesn’t, I’m not worried. Felix can still be the best pitcher in the American League topping out at 91 MPH.

Finally, in somewhat of a surprising move, the Mariners elected to carry 3B/1B Alex Liddi on the roster instead of OF Carlos Peguero in Mike Carp and Franklin Gutierrez’s absence. It’s surprising because the Mariners seemed very high on Peguero, who crushed 5 homers and slugged .588 in 53 spring training plate appearances. Peguero’s discipline was still terrible, though. He walked only twice and struck out 18 times. His big power is certainly tantalizing to the Mariners, but they made the right decision in ticketing him for Tacoma. I’m not very high on Peguero, but if he’s going to have any chance in the Majors, he needs to work on his approach. That’s easier to do in Tacoma against bad pitchers than in the Majors against good pitchers.

While Liddi certainly earned his way onto the team with a .370/.453/.587 line in spring training, it’s unlikely that he’ll see much playing time. The fallout of this move is that it makes Chone Figgins the Mariners’ regular left fielder while Mike Carp is gone, and allows Kyle Seager to have at least a week in the starting lineup. Seager may not turn out to be a star, but all he’s done at any level in his career is hit the ball hard. Some fans may want to see Liddi in the lineup, but he’s simply not ready for everyday Major League ABs. He may never be. Seager could be an average-ish 3B, and if he hits well during Mike Carp’s absence, it’s possible that he holds on to his spot when Carp returns. That would likely, mercifully, mean that the Chone Figgins-as-a-leadoff-hitter experiment can end sooner than expected.

More important than any of this, though, is that baseball season is back! Again. Weird. But it’s going to stick around for more than two days this time! Let’s go Mariners!

Cheers from King Felix's Court!

When the Mariners announced their rotation yesterday, four of the names made sense. Felix and Vargas were locks. Hector Noesi was acquired to be a starter, and performed well in spring training. Kevin Millwood was meant to be an innings sponge that helps the Mariners delay starting Hultzen or Paxton’s clocks. So those four all make sense. The one that’s baffling to me is Blake Beavan.

It’s easy to see why Wedge would like Beavan. He’s young, has good poise, and rarely walks batters–he had a ridiculous 1.39 BB/9 last year. It’s everything else that Beavan is lacking in. He doesn’t miss bats–his 3.90 strikeout rate was third worst among starters with over 90 IP last season. His 38.1% groundball rate was below average as well. Beavan’s upside is likely an ok #4 or a good #5 starter.

While that’s serviceable,  this is a season where the Mariners likely aren’t going to contend. The Mariners could learn more about what they have by giving that spot to Hisashi Iwakuma or Erasmo Ramirez, who both may have #3-4 starter quality upside. It’s clear that Beavan’s upside is limited. We don’t know if Ramirez or Iwakuma can be better than #5 starters, but at least the possibility is there. Giving Beavan the spot in the rotation isn’t a terrible decision, but both Iwakuma and Ramirez have greater potential. For that reason, I would have rather seen one of them given that spot in the rotation.

Thanks to a report from the Gaston Gazette, it appears that the Mariners are going to sign RHP Kevin Millwood. Terms of the deal weren’t given, but the report notes that Millwood recently turned down a one-year contract offer from the Colorado Rockies worth $1 million with up to $2 million in incentives. So take that for what it’s worth; the Mariners are likely paying him more! Though it’s possible they’re paying less! There’s no way to know right now!

On to Millwood the pitcher: he’s going to be 37 next year, and is coming off of a season where he posted a 3.55 xFIP in nine starts for the Rockies. He also pitched in the minor leagues for both the Red Sox and Yankees. He only threw 9 innings of 6.64 FIP ball for the Yankees organization, but posted 73.2 innings of a 3.70 FIP for Pawtucket.

Millwood’s profile remains largely the same as it has throughout his career. His average fastball was 89.2 MPH in 2011, down from his career average of 90.7, which is not too bad of a drop considering his age. Millwood is also still a moderate ground ball pitcher–42.4% of his balls in play were on the ground. That’s good. Watching Brendan Ryan field ground balls is good.

On what is likely a cheap, one-year deal, this move really has no downside. Millwood has shown in the past couple of years that he is still a solid back-end option for a rotation. If he remains in the rotation all season, I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up 1.5-2 WAR. More likely, though, he’ll just be holding Paxton or Hultzen’s place, so the Mariners can keep those two in the minors and not start their service clocks yet. A good low-risk, medium-reward move for Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners.

EDIT, 3:02 pm: It’s a Minor-league deal! Or so says Jon Heyman Absolutely no downside to this.

Jon Heyman is reporting via twitter that the Mariners have traded Michael Pineda to the New York Yankees for C/DH Jesus Montero. Heyman also followed up saying that “more players are involved,” though who exactly is involved isn’t exactly clear yet.

Montero, a right-handed batter, put up a nifty .328/.406/.590 line with 4 home runs in 18 games for New York after hitting .288/.348/.467 in Triple-A. Three of Montero’s four major-league home runs were hit to right field, two of which are classified by Hit Tracker Online as “no-doubters.” His home run to left field travelled 429 feet.

If this was a one-for-one deal, I would consider it a slight loss for the Mariners. Montero is certainly a good player, but I just hope the Mariners are getting more back. However, pitchers are extremely risky, and Montero is a very good prospect. I’ll reserve passing a final judgment until we have the details about the other involved players.

And as I write this, it appears to be a four-player deal. The Mariners are sending Jose Campos in addition to Pineda and are receiving pitcher Hector Noesi in addition to Montero. I don’t know much about either of those two players, so I am going to cop-out and not offer a judgment of this deal. Sorry everyone!!

According to a report from CBS writer C. Trent Rosencrans, the Mariners are close to signing 30-year-old right hander Hisashi Iwakuma. You may remember that the Oakland A’s won the rights to negotiate with him last year through the posting process, but they were unable to reach an agreement with him. Now that he is a free agent, he doesn’t have to go through the posting process again, allowing him to sign with whichever team he chooses.

Iwakuma had some shoulder issues last May, but ended up having a solid season after recovering, posting a 2.42 ERA in 119 innings, with 90 strikeouts and only 19 walks.  That’s good for a 4.74 K/BB ratio, the best of Iwakuma’s career. Iwakuma works with a fastball that sits between 88-92 MPH, and also throws a splitter, slider, and curveball. He will also sometimes throw the “shuuto,” which behaves much like a two-seamed fastball, except it has a sharp downward dive at the end.

(To get an idea of what it looks like, he throws the shuuto in the first two pitches in the video below.)

I’ll admit I’m no expert of the Japanese leagues, though I can’t see how this could hurt, unless the Mariners are spending a lot of money on him–which I doubt. There doesn’t appear to be any details on the potential length or dollar figures yet, so just looking at him as a player, he fits. Iwakuma looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter, and acquiring him would allow the Mariners to trade Jason Vargas, or perhaps even Michael Pineda if they were looking to acquire a hitter via trade. Though, it should be noted, the Mariners have not officially signed Iwakuma yet. Still, news! News about the Mariners possibly acquiring players! At least it’s not more of sitting around and waiting for Prince Fielder to sign.

I’ve been thinking a lot about Adam Rubin’s report that the Mets are calling teams and informing them that Daniel Murphy is available the past few days. Murphy is a player I hardly thought of before reading that report, but after doing some research, he appears to be a good fit for the Mariners.

First of all, the fact that he’s “available,” as stated in Rubin’s report, does not mean he will be traded. Still, Murphy, who will turn 27 on April 1st, is a starting-caliber player who offers defensive versatility and an above-average bat. While his 2011 line of .320/.362/.448 line is definitely impressive, be aware that it is driven by a .345 BABIP. While his career BABIP is .319, Murphy should definitely not be considered a “true talent” .320 hitter. So it’s possible that his value may never be higher, meaning that any acquiring team may have to offer good players or talented prospects to land him.

That being said, Murphy seems like the perfect fit for a Mariners team that is lacking in offense and has a glaring hole at third base. Last season, Murphy logged 220.2 innings in 28 games at third base and recorded a stellar 6.3 UZR/150. While that’s a small sample size, Murphy has shown competency at first and second as well in his career. He’s a bit of a disaster over the long haul in the outfield, but could fake it there for a game or three. Assuming that Murphy’s defensive excellence at third base is small sample size noise, he’d still be an asset at the hot corner if he’s even a neutral defender there.

The most important aspect of Murphy’s game is his bat. His career line of .292/.343/.441 is likely more indicative of his true talent level, which would be more than passable for a third baseman. Add in the fact that he’s left-handed and he’s the perfect target for the Mariners. He has a career contact rate of 87.9% with a 21.7% line drive rate, with a minuscule 9.9% strikeout rate. Simply put, Murphy makes solid contact, and often. Though he doesn’t walk often, Murphy could be a guy that hits 40 doubles and 15 home runs per season with a high batting average for his last four years of club control.

So now that I’ve sold you on how awesome Daniel Murphy is, the question becomes this: what will it take to pry him away from the Mets? Well, they really just aren’t very good at a number of positions right now. I think a good starting offer would be Trayvon Robinson and Brandon League. While Murphy has had Major League success, the fact that his team’s GM is actively telling other teams that he is “available” makes me think that the Mets would merely be asking for good prospects instead of top prospects. With K-Rod no longer a part of the Mets bullpen, League offers a good young closer candidate, and Robinson gives them high upside at a position of weakness. The Mariners probably shouldn’t go much higher than that for Murphy. But if he could be had for that price, third base could be one of the bright spots in the Mariners lineup, instead of one of the biggest black holes.

According to an ESPN report, the Cleveland Indians decline their $9 million option on the popular but oft-injured outfielder today. Being that the Mariners could do with an upgrade at several positions this offseason, I’d have to think the Mariners should at least as Sizemore’s agent what kind of deal he’s looking to get, as he’s a very intriguing fit in left field (or center, given Gutierrez’s injury history and poor play recently), bringing a good glove and a powerful left-handed bat that would fit Safeco Field well.

The main question would be what Sizemore was looking to earn. He’s coming off a contract that ran from 2006-2011 in which he earned $22.45 million and accrued 23.5 WAR. Admittedly, most of his WAR came early in the deal, as Sizemore has recently battled numerous injuries en route to producing only 1.9 WAR since 2008. However, because of these injures, he’ll likely have to settle for a cheap deal. His upside is certainly worth something like a 2-year, $8-10 million dollar contract or so. Given that he is only 28-years-old, it’s likely that he will see a few serious offers; it’s not like he’s going to get nothing but an invite to someone’s Spring Training.

It’s unlikely that he’ll ever return to being a 6-8 WAR per year type of player, but if it comes at a minimal cost, Sizemore could be the bargain of the offseason even if he produces 3 WAR or better. Of course, it’s also possible he doesn’t contribute anything. When a player has a career line of .269/.357/.473 and his skillset fits your home stadium, it would be foolish not to at least inquire about what kind of money he wants. Signing Sizemore instead of someone like Prince Fielder would also allow you more money to fill other holes. Not that I’m totally opposed to signing Fielder, but given the Mariners’ current state, a low-risk, high-reward player like Sizemore may be the better play for the Mariners in 2011.